The Mark Sanford Comeback

Mark-SanfordBy Paul Gable

Everybody has an opinion on whether the latest “trespassing” chapter in the ongoing Mark Sanford political resurrection saga will hurt his chances of winning the May 7th special election for the S.C. 1st Congressional District.

Quick answer – No, Mark Sanford will be going back to Washington.

This is not a criminal trespass charge, but, rather, a complaint reportedly filed by Jenny Sanford’s lawyer to be heard in family court two days after the special election.

Another way of putting it is it’s a dispute between a divorced couple. Hardly the stuff of big headlines, although some are trying to make it such.

You have to wonder about the timing of this latest Sanford incident. According to reports, Sanford has been in violation several times of the divorce settlement, reached with ex-wife Jenny, which says neither can be in the other’s house without permission.

The latest incident occurred February 3, 2013 but only makes it into the news cycle April 16th, exactly three weeks before the special election.

Sanford took a beating in the mainstream media Wednesday and the National Republican Congressional Committee decided not to put any money into the Sanford election campaign.

It doesn’t make any difference. The 1st Congressional District became even more Republican with the newly drawn district lines after the 2010 reapportionment.

Republicans outvoted Democrats over 3 to 1 in the March 19th district primary. Sanford polled 19,854 votes in taking 37% of the Republican votes in that first round of voting. Democratic opponent Elizabeth Colbert Busch polled 15,802 votes while receiving 96% of the Democratic vote.

Recent polling reports have said the race between Sanford and Colbert Busch is a tossup. Don’t believe it!

Special elections are not won with money. They are won by getting your base supporters out to the polls. Republicans will still come out to vote for the Republican candidate in greater numbers than Democrats will.

 

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